Impact of cigarette price and tobacco control policies on youth smoking experimentation in Albania.

BACKGROUND: Albania has one of the highest smoking prevalence in Europe especially among the youth. There is a lack of evidence in Albania, as well as in most of Eastern Europe and middle-income countries, regarding the effect of price on smoking experimentation. OBJECTIVE: The study aims to assess the effect of price and tobacco control policies on youth smoking experimentation in Albania. METHODS: We used microdata from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey in Albania for 2004, 2009, 2015 and 2020. We constructed a pseudo-longitudinal dataset and estimated a split-population model to assess the hazard of smoking experimentation. RESULTS: Price is a significant predictor of smoking experimentation among teenagers in Albania for both males and females (p<0.001). Being male increases the odds for smoking experimentation by more than 50% as compared with females (p<0.001), whereas females appear to be more price sensitive. Peer and parent smoking are also important determinants for smoking experimentation. Introducing penalties for smokers and legal entities violating smoke-free policies implemented in 2014 is also associated with a lower hazard of smoking experimentation. CONCLUSION: Price is a significant predictor of smoking experimentation among teenagers in Albania for both males and females. A combination of increasing taxes and strengthening the rule of law to control tobacco use in public spaces, in addition to public awareness campaigns targeting both youth and smoking parents, could help to significantly reduce the probability of smoking experimentation.

Tobacco policy (in)coherence in Mozambique: an examination of national and subnational stakeholder perspectives.

Mozambique ranks fifth on the list of tobacco producing countries in Africa, while also being a Party to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). Tobacco farming is regarded by some governments as a strategic economic commodity for export and remains deeply entrenched within Mozambique's political and economic landscape. This study uses a qualitative description methodology to identify tensions, conflicts and alignment or misalignment in policy on tobacco across government sectors and levels in Mozambique. We conducted semi-structured qualitative interviews with 33 key informants from sectors across national and subnational levels including health, agriculture, economic and commercial sectors, as well as non-state actors from civil society organizations, the tobacco industry, farmers unions and associations and individual farmers. Incoherence was present across sectoral mandates, perspectives on industry's presence in the country and regions and between FCTC provisions and informant perceptions of tobacco production as a development strategy. Despite tobacco being viewed as an important economic commodity by many informants, there was also widespread dissatisfaction with tobacco from both farmers and some government officials. There were indications of an openness to shifting to a policy that emphasizes alternatives to tobacco growing. The findings also illustrate where points of convergence exist across sectors and where opportunities for aligning tobacco policy with the provisions of the FCTC can occur.

Assessing the level of poverty and utilization of government social programs among tobacco farmers in Indonesia.

INTRODUCTION: Studies examining profit suggest that former tobacco farmers do as well or better than current tobacco farmers. Research has yet to examine the relationship among current and former tobacco farmers, poverty, and receipt of government social assistance. This type of research is critical to understanding the direct and indirect subsidization of tobacco growing. This study analyzed tobacco farmers' poverty levels and receipt of government social assistance programs. METHODS: We designed and conducted an original four-wave economic survey of current and former tobacco farming households in Indonesia between 2016 and 2022. We then used descriptive analysis and probit regression for panel data to estimate the relationship between tobacco farming and poverty status. RESULTS: Tobacco farmers' per capita income and poverty rates vary across years. The poverty rate was significantly higher in the year with a higher-than-normal rainfall as it negatively affected farming outcomes. During this year, the poverty rate among current tobacco farmers was also higher than that of former tobacco farmers. Regression estimates from the panel data confirm the association between tobacco farming and the likelihood of being poor. We also found a high share of current tobacco farmers who receive government social assistance programs, such as cash transfer programs and a universal healthcare program. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show high poverty rates-particularly during bad farming years-and high rates of government social assistance among tobacco farmers. The high rates of government assistance among tobacco farmers living in poverty show that the government is indirectly subsidizing the tobacco industry.

Foregrounding women and household dynamics to inform Article 17: a qualitative description analysis of tobacco farming households in Mozambique.

PURPOSE: This paper examines the intrahousehold dynamics between women and men present in tobacco farming households in Mozambique. Attention to the experiences and realities of the smallholder farmers is crucial for understanding approaches to alternative livelihoods. Intrahousehold dynamics can provide important insights into how these households and their members view tobacco production and engage with the political economy of tobacco farming, how they make decisions, and the rationale and values behind these decisions. METHODS: Data were collected through single-gender focus group discussions (n=8) with 108 participants (men=57, women=51). Analysis was informed by a qualitative description methodology. This research presents a gender-based analysis examining the perspectives, roles, decision-making processes and desires of female and male tobacco farmers in four key tobacco-growing districts in Mozambique. FINDINGS: Throughout this paper, women are found to hold leverage and influence in tobacco farming households, and this leverage is in part gained via the necessity of women's unpaid labour in achieving profitability in tobacco farming. Both women and men are also found to strongly desire and pursue the well-being of the household. CONCLUSION: Women hold agency within tobacco-growing households and participate in decision-making processes regarding tobacco agriculture. Women should be included in future tobacco control policies and programmes pertaining to Article 17.

Better cigarette tax policies and higher tobacco excise tax revenues.

BACKGROUND: In November 2021, the Tobacconomics team published the second edition of the Cigarette Tax Scorecard which evaluates cigarette taxation in each country based on four components-cigarette price, affordability change, tax share and tax structure. This study examines the relationship between the overall cigarette tax score and tobacco excise tax revenue between 2014 and 2018. METHODS: Using cigarette tax scores from the Tobacconomics Cigarette Tax Scorecard and tobacco excise tax revenue information from WHO, this analysis is based on ordinary least squares estimations to assess the association between the overall cigarette tax scores and tobacco excise tax revenues per capita controlling for countries' tobacco control environment, sociodemographic characteristics and country and year fixed effects. RESULTS: A 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.98 (in constant 2018 purchasing power parity international dollars). For low and middle-income countries and lower performing countries at baseline, a 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.32 and $6.92, respectively. If all countries had increased their scores to '5', the tobacco excise tax revenue per capita would have increased by 22.51%. CONCLUSIONS: Higher overall cigarette tax scores are associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita. Countries aiming to reach higher cigarette tax scores would be able to reduce tobacco use and increase their tobacco tax revenue, which can be allocated to development priorities.

The cigarette market in Brazil: new evidence on illicit practices from the 2019 National Health Survey.

OBJECTIVE: To explore new evidence on illicit practices, such as selling legal brands below the minimum legal price (MLP), and smugglers selling illicit brands at or above the MLP. METHODS: For the first time in Brazil, self-reported information on cigarette brand name and price paid per pack in smokers' last purchase from a nationally representative survey conducted in 2019 was used to distinguish the illicit and the legal markets. We estimated the proportion of illicit cigarette consumption, using the combination of brand and price. RESULTS: The proportion of smuggled illicit cigarette consumption based on brands not approved on the Brazilian market was estimated at 38.6% (95% CI: 35.8% to 41.5%). When we added legal brands not paying taxes, it increased to 47.1% (95% CI: 44.2% to 49.9%). Around 25% of illicit brand cigarettes were sold at or above MLP. CONCLUSIONS: In Brazil, since 2017 there is a lack of adjustment in tobacco taxes and the MLP for inflation and income growth. The increase in cigarette affordability and the presence on the market of a segment of 'higher-priced' illicit brands suggest patterns of illicit brand loyalty and/or perceived 'brand quality' among smokers of illicit cigarettes. The evidence also shows that a sizeable proportion of legal brand cigarettes were sold below the MLP. This study offers insight into what happened in circumstances in which a government failed to keep current with tax policies and the monitoring of domestic manufacturing. Brazil has been a world leader in the monitoring of the tobacco epidemic, and this study also offers an innovative use of data that an increasing number of countries are collecting.

Pandemic-Related Life Events and Physical Inactivity During COVID-19 Among Israeli Adults: The Smoking and Lifestyles in Israel Study.

BACKGROUND: Public health measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic have led to disruptions in daily life, such as job loss and changes in activity. The present study examines the relationship between pandemic-related life events and disuse (prolonged sitting coupled with inactivity) among adults. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 4084 adults in Israel (September 2020). The primary independent variables were pandemic-related life events, such as job loss. The primary dependent variable was disuse as measured by the Rapid Assessment Disuse Index (RADI). The RADI was examined continuously and dichotomously as a low RADI score (<26: yes/no). RESULTS: Linear regression indicated that experiencing a major life event during the pandemic was associated with lower RADI scores (-1.04; 95% confidence interval, -1.48 to -0.61). Similarly, logistic regression revealed that those experiencing a major life event had 1.18 (95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.34) times greater odds for low RADI scores in comparison to those not experiencing an event. CONCLUSIONS: Experiencing pandemic-related major life events was linked to less sitting time and increased activity levels among Israeli adults. Future research should examine underlying mechanisms explaining this relationship to facilitate the design and implementation of targeted interventions.

As countries improve their cigarette tax policy, cigarette consumption declines.

BACKGROUND: This study examines the association between the Tobacconomics cigarette tax scores and cigarette consumption in 97 countries during the period of 2014-2020. METHODS: Data on countries' retail cigarette sales and overall cigarette tax scores from 2014 to 2020 are drawn from the proprietary Euromonitor International database and the Tobacconomics Cigarette Tax Scorecard (second edition). Information on countries' tobacco control environments and demographic characteristics is from the relevant years' WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic, and the World Bank's World Development Indicators database. Ordinary least squares regressions are employed to examine the link between countries' overall cigarette tax scores and cigarette consumption. All regressions control for countries' tobacco control environments, countries' demographic characteristics, year indicators and country fixed effects. RESULTS: Each unit increase in the overall cigarette tax scores is significantly associated with a reduction of 9% in countries' per-capita cigarette consumption during 2014-2020. The reduction is more pronounced in low and middle-income countries (9%) than in high-income countries (6%). The modest improvement in scores from 2014 to 2020 is associated with a reduction of 3.27% in consumption, while consumption could have been reduced by 20.74% had countries implemented optimal tax policies that would earn the highest score of 5. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide evidence on the association between higher cigarette tax scores and lower cigarette consumption. To reduce tobacco consumption, governments must strive to implement all four components in the Cigarette Tax Scorecard at the highest level.

Cardiorespiratory fitness and depression symptoms among adults during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Cooper Center Longitudinal Study.

This study examined the relation between cardiorespiratory fitness (fitness) and depression symptoms prior to and during COVID-19 among adults seeking preventive medical care. Participants consisted of 967 patients attending the Cooper Clinic (Dallas, TX) pre-pandemic (March 2018-December 2019) and during the pandemic (March-December 2020). The outcome, depression symptoms, was based on the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression (CES-D). Maximal metabolic equivalents task (MET) levels for fitness were determined from the final treadmill speed and grade. Multiple linear regression models were computed by sex. Analysis revealed that mean fitness decreased from 11.4 METs (SD = 2.1) prior to the pandemic to 10.9 METs (SD = 2.3) during the pandemic (p-value < 0.001). The mean CES-D score increased from 2.8 (SD = 3.1) before to pandemic to 3.1 (SD = 3.2) during the pandemic (p-value = 0.003). Results from multiple linear regression indicate that increased fitness was associated with a statistically significant decrease in depression scores in men (-0.17 per MET; 95% CI -0.33, -0.02) but not women. This modest decrease may have been tempered by high fitness levels and low depression scores at baseline in this well-educated sample.

Recent evidence on the illicit cigarette trade in Latin America.

The tobacco industry continues to present the illicit trade of tobacco products as a reason to slow, stop, or reverse tobacco control efforts in Latin America, including increasing tobacco excise taxes. In most cases, industry estimates of illicit trade, usually non-transparent and flawed, dwarf those of independent, rigorous research. Often, independent studies find that the levels of illicit trade are mostly non-consequential or easily manageable (<12%). Almost always, industry findings grossly overestimate the illicit market. Fortunately, a burgeoning empirical literature in the region-including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Uruguay-is illuminating the genuine levels and nature of this trade, typically employing gap analysis that compares tax-paid sales to consumption and/or pack inspection studies using packs shown by smokers in surveys or discarded in the streets or garbage. Additional research in countries including Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Paraguay examines supply chains to help identify the illicit sources. This research is already helping governments to address any real problems with illicit trade and to reassure stakeholders that tobacco control efforts should be strengthened, not diminished.

La industria tabacalera sigue presentando el comercio ilícito de los productos derivados del tabaco como argumento para ralentizar, detener o revertir las actividades de control del tabaco en América Latina, como el aumento de los impuestos especiales al consumo de tabaco. En la mayoría de los casos, las estimaciones de la industria sobre el comercio ilícito, que generalmente tienen fallas y son poco transparentes, son pequeñas frente a las estimaciones hechas mediante investigaciones independientes y rigurosas. A menudo, los estudios independientes concluyen que los niveles de comercio ilícito son en su mayoría inconsecuentes o fácilmente manejables (< 12 %). Casi siempre, los resultados de la industria sobreestiman de manera considerable el mercado ilícito. Afortunadamente, una floreciente bibliografía empírica en la región, en países como Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Uruguay, está arrojando luz sobre la verdadera naturaleza y los niveles reales de este comercio, generalmente empleando análisis de brechas que comparan las ventas que generan impuestos con el consumo, así como estudios de inspección de paquetes mostrados por fumadores encuestados o paquetes desechados en las calles o en la basura. En otras investigaciones en países como Brasil, Colombia, Ecuador y Paraguay se examinan las cadenas de suministro para ayudar a identificar las fuentes ilícitas. Esta investigación ya está ayudando a los gobiernos a abordar cualquier problema real con el comercio ilícito y reafirmar ante las partes interesadas que los esfuerzos de control del tabaco deben fortalecerse, no minimizarse.

A indústria do tabaco continua a apresentar o comércio ilícito de produtos derivados do tabaco como um motivo para retardar, interromper ou reverter os esforços para controlar o tabagismo na América Latina, incluindo o aumento dos impostos específicos sobre o consumo de tabaco. Na maioria dos casos, as estimativas do comércio ilícito feitas pela indústria, de modo geral falhas e pouco transparentes, fazem com que os resultados de pesquisas independentes e rigorosas pareçam menores. Não raro, estudos independentes constatam que os níveis do comércio ilícito são, na maioria dos casos, pouco significativos ou facilmente administráveis (<12%). Quase sempre, as constatações da indústria superestimam grosseiramente o mercado ilícito. Felizmente, uma bibliografia empírica crescente na região ­ abrangendo Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, México e Uruguai ­ está lançando luz sobre os níveis efetivos e a natureza desse comércio, normalmente empregando uma análise de lacunas que compara as vendas tributadas com o consumo e/ou estudos baseados na inspeção das embalagens, usando embalagens mostradas por fumantes em levantamentos ou descartadas nas ruas ou no lixo. Outros estudos em países como Brasil, Colômbia, Equador e Paraguai examinam as cadeias de fornecimento para ajudar a identificar as fontes ilícitas. Este estudo já está ajudando os governos a abordar problemas reais com o comércio ilícito e a assegurar às partes interessadas que os esforços para controlar o tabagismo devem ser reforçados em vez de reduzidos.

Recent evidence on the illicit cigarette trade in Latin America

[ABSTRACT]. The tobacco industry continues to present the illicit trade of tobacco products as a reason to slow, stop, or reverse tobacco control efforts in Latin America, including increasing tobacco excise taxes. In most cases, industry estimates of illicit trade, usually non-transparent and flawed, dwarf those of independent, rigorous research. Often, independent studies find that the levels of illicit trade are mostly non-consequential or eas- ily manageable (<12%). Almost always, industry findings grossly overestimate the illicit market. Fortunately, a burgeoning empirical literature in the region—including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Uruguay—is illuminating the genuine levels and nature of this trade, typically employing gap analysis that compares tax-paid sales to consumption and/or pack inspection studies using packs shown by smokers in surveys or discarded in the streets or garbage. Additional research in countries including Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Paraguay examines supply chains to help identify the illicit sources. This research is already helping governments to address any real problems with illicit trade and to reassure stakeholders that tobacco control efforts should be strengthened, not diminished.

[RESUMEN]. La industria tabacalera sigue presentando el comercio ilícito de los productos derivados del tabaco como argumento para ralentizar, detener o revertir las actividades de control del tabaco en América Latina, como el aumento de los impuestos especiales al consumo de tabaco. En la mayoría de los casos, las estimaciones de la industria sobre el comercio ilícito, que generalmente tienen fallas y son poco transparentes, son pequeñas frente a las estimaciones hechas mediante investigaciones independientes y rigurosas. A menudo, los estudios independientes concluyen que los niveles de comercio ilícito son en su mayoría inconsecuentes o fácilmente manejables (< 12 %). Casi siempre, los resultados de la industria sobreestiman de manera considerable el mercado ilícito. Afortunadamente, una floreciente bibliografía empírica en la región, en países como Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Uruguay, está arrojando luz sobre la verdadera naturaleza y los niveles reales de este comercio, generalmente empleando análisis de brechas que comparan las ventas que generan impuestos con el consumo, así como estudios de inspección de paquetes mostrados por fumadores encuestados o paquetes desechados en las calles o en la basura. En otras investigaciones en países como Brasil, Colombia, Ecuador y Paraguay se examinan las cadenas de suministro para ayudar a identificar las fuentes ilícitas. Esta investigación ya está ayudando a los gobiernos a abordar cualquier problema real con el comercio ilícito y reafirmar ante las partes interesadas que los esfuerzos de control del tabaco deben fortalecerse, no minimizarse.

[RESUMO]. A indústria do tabaco continua a apresentar o comércio ilícito de produtos derivados do tabaco como um motivo para retardar, interromper ou reverter os esforços para controlar o tabagismo na América Latina, incluindo o aumento dos impostos específicos sobre o consumo de tabaco. Na maioria dos casos, as estimativas do comércio ilícito feitas pela indústria, de modo geral falhas e pouco transparentes, fazem com que os resultados de pesquisas independentes e rigorosas pareçam menores. Não raro, estudos independentes constatam que os níveis do comércio ilícito são, na maioria dos casos, pouco significativos ou facilmente administráveis (<12%). Quase sempre, as constatações da indústria superestimam grosseiramente o mercado ilícito. Felizmente, uma bibliografia empírica crescente na região — abrangendo Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, México e Uruguai — está lançando luz sobre os níveis efetivos e a natureza desse comércio, normalmente empregando uma análise de lacunas que compara as vendas tributadas com o consumo e/ou estudos baseados na inspeção das embalagens, usando embalagens mostradas por fumantes em levantamentos ou descartadas nas ruas ou no lixo. Outros estudos em países como Brasil, Colômbia, Equador e Paraguai examinam as cadeias de fornecimento para ajudar a identificar as fontes ilícitas. Este estudo já está ajudando os governos a abordar problemas reais com o comércio ilícito e a assegurar às partes interessadas que os esforços para controlar o tabagismo devem ser reforçados em vez de reduzidos.

Regional implications of the tobacco value chain in Paraguay.

BACKGROUND: Paraguay is a major supplier of illicit cigarettes for the Latin American region and beyond. In July 2022, Paraguay ratified the FCTC Protocol. This is an opportunity and a challenge for neighboring countries to implement coordinated actions. This is the first analysis of the foreign trade data for cigarettes and their inputs using Paraguayan data to contextualise the illicit trade problem in Latin America and globally. METHODS: Combining publicly available Paraguayan databases, this research constructs a database to analyse imported cigarette inputs, particularly by identifying the companies and their national origins. RESULTS: A complex multinational supply chain perpetuates a flow of inputs into Paraguay that contributes to the production and export of illicit tobacco products. Brazil is a relevant legal supplier of intermediate goods for the Paraguayan tobacco industry yet is not a significant destination of the legal exports of cigarettes produced in Paraguay. Yet, Paraguayan cigarettes are widely available in the Brazilian market, almost all of them illicit. Trade data also show the role of other countries in the region as major cigarette input exporters to Paraguay. Evidence also supports that high volumes of legal exports from Paraguay to third countries (including Bolivia, Suriname, Aruba and Curacao) may be fuelling illicit trade through triangulation to other countries. CONCLUSIONS: The oversupply-that is, more supply than necessary for domestic consumption and legal exports-of cigarette inputs likely divert illegally back to the countries exporting these inputs and others. Thus, the responsibility for illicit trade in cigarettes falls not only on Paraguayan companies but also on companies exporting inputs to Paraguay to producing these illicit goods. Furthermore, Paraguay is not only exporting illicitly directly to Brazil and Argentina, but also appears to oversupply other countries in South America and the Caribbean that cannot legally absorb this trade through domestic consumption and/or legal re-export.

Health Economics Research in Primary Prevention of Cancer: Assessment, Current Challenges, and Future Directions.

In the past 2 decades, the demand for information on health economics research to guide health care decision making has substantially increased. Studies have provided evidence that eliminating or reducing tobacco use; eating a healthy diet, including fruit and vegetables; being physically active; reducing alcohol consumption; avoiding ultraviolet radiation; and minimizing exposure to environmental and occupational carcinogenic agents should substantially reduce cancer incidence in the population. The benefits of these primary prevention measures in reducing cancer incidence are not instantaneous. Therefore, health economics research has an important role to play in providing credible information to decision makers on the health and economic benefits of primary prevention. This article provides an overview of health economics research related to primary prevention of cancer. We addressed the following questions: 1) What are the gaps and unmet needs for performing health economics research focused on primary prevention of cancer? 2) What are the challenges and opportunities to conducting health economics research to evaluate primary prevention of cancer? and 3) What are the future directions for enhancing health economics research on primary prevention of cancer? Modeling primary prevention of cancer is often difficult given data limitations, long delays before the policy or intervention is effective, possible unintended effects of the policy or intervention, and the necessity of outside expertise to understand key inputs or outputs to the modeling. Despite these challenges, health economics research has an important role to play in providing credible information to decision makers on the health and economic benefits of primary prevention of cancer.

Tobacco farming: overcoming an understated impediment to comprehensive tobacco control.

Tobacco farming has emerged as an important concern for tobacco control advocates. Tobacco-growing countries face unique and important challenges to comprehensive, intersectoral tobacco control. These challenges stem from narratives that position tobacco as an important driver of economic growth and development, perpetuated by tobacco interests with close ties to government decision-making. While the global tobacco control movement has enshrined a commitment to alternatives to tobacco growing, there remain numerous obstacles. Tobacco growing is often situated in contexts with limited markets for other agricultural products, limited knowledge and economic resources to pursue alternatives, and/or a structure that favours industry control over the supply chain, all constraining the decision space of farmers. An evidence-informed approach is necessary to address tobacco supply, including growing, processing, manufacturing and trade, in this complex context. This paper reviews the economic, environmental and policy context of tobacco growing with an emphasis on the past decade of empirical work on the political economy of tobacco supply and introduces strategies to pursue alternatives. This analysis debunks many of the arguments used to perpetuate the narrative of tobacco's prosperity and provides critical insights into the institutional constraints faced by government sectors in pursuing a policy of alternatives.

Unemployment and cancer screening: Baseline estimates to inform health care delivery in the context of COVID-19 economic distress.

BACKGROUND: During the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, US unemployment rates rose to historic highs, and they remain nearly double those of prepandemic levels. Employers are the most common source of health insurance among nonelderly adults. Thus, job loss may lead to a loss of health insurance and reduce access to cancer screening. This study examined associations between unemployment, health insurance, and cancer screening to inform the pandemic's potential impacts on early cancer detection. METHODS: Up-to-date and past-year breast, cervical, colorectal, and prostate cancer screening prevalences were computed for nonelderly respondents (aged <65 years) with 2000-2018 National Health Interview Survey data. Multivariable logistic regression models with marginal probabilities were used to estimate unemployed-versus-employed unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios. RESULTS: Unemployed adults (2000-2018) were 4 times more likely to lack insurance than employed adults (41.4% vs 10.0%; P < .001). Unemployed adults had a significantly lower up-to-date prevalence of screening for cervical cancer (78.5% vs 86.2%; P < .001), breast cancer (67.8% vs 77.5%; P < .001), colorectal cancer (41.9 vs 48.5%; P < .001), and prostate cancer (25.4% vs 36.4%; P < .001). These differences were eliminated after accounting for health insurance coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Unemployment was adversely associated with up-to-date cancer screening, and this was fully explained by a lack of health insurance. Ensuring the continuation of health insurance coverage after job loss may mitigate the pandemic's economic distress and future economic downturns' impact on cancer screening.

Tobacco 21 adoption decreased sales of cigarette brands purchased by young people: a translation of population health survey data to gain insight into market data for policy analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Policies raising the minimum age of sale of tobacco products to 21 (T21) proliferated at state and local levels across the USA before a federal policy was adopted. Evidence of the effectiveness of these policies is building and lags implementation. This study exploits demographic patterns of cigarette brand purchasing to evaluate the effectiveness of T21. METHODS: To capture the effect of T21 implementation on cigarette sales, we used universal product code-level data from Nielsen Scantrack data covering January 2015 to October 2019. We used the 2015 to 2018 National Survey on Drug Use and Health to identify cigarette brands where smokers under 21 comprised a disproportionately high (young) and low (old) share of consumption. We fit fixed-effects linear regressions in Nielsen designated market areas to test if sales of young or old cigarette brands were changed by T21. Unadjusted models controlled for time and T21 implementation date. Adjusted models controlled for price, seasonality and unemployment. A permutation test of 5000 randomised placebo T21 policies were fit to determine how well the true date of implementation fit sales data stratified by brand group. RESULTS: Sales of disproportionately young brands declined after T21 implementation. T21 policy implementation dates fit disproportionately young brand sales trends better than 99% of adjusted randomised placebo models. T21 implementation fit disproportionately old brand sales trends better than just 1% of adjusted randomised placebo models. CONCLUSION: This study adds compelling empirical evidence that T21 decreased purchases of the cigarette brands consumed disproportionately by young people, the policy's target demographic.